* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INGRID AL082007 09/16/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 35 38 41 44 46 49 55 58 60 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 35 38 41 44 46 49 55 58 60 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 31 32 34 39 45 52 SHEAR (KTS) 20 24 27 28 20 27 18 18 12 9 6 14 19 SHEAR DIR 267 267 284 293 291 290 298 291 322 298 351 313 312 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 149 148 148 150 151 153 154 154 155 156 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 137 137 136 136 136 135 136 136 135 135 135 132 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.5 -54.5 -54.8 -54.6 -54.7 -54.7 -55.0 -55.0 -55.1 -55.2 -55.4 -55.6 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 50 51 52 51 51 50 51 50 52 49 48 46 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -23 -21 -25 -29 -25 -33 -30 -13 -13 -11 -18 -1 200 MB DIV 11 2 0 15 27 18 12 -5 -6 -13 -25 -9 2 LAND (KM) 782 723 645 590 538 451 405 412 434 486 544 630 716 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.3 18.6 19.5 20.2 21.0 21.7 22.5 23.2 24.0 24.7 LONG(DEG W) 58.2 58.9 59.6 60.1 60.6 61.6 62.4 63.0 63.6 64.1 64.5 64.5 64.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 73 75 77 77 76 77 88 78 70 67 58 54 56 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 731 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 16. 20. 24. 26. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 18. 24. 28. 31. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 19. 25. 28. 30. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL082007 INGRID 09/16/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.0 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.2 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 7% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 16% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082007 INGRID 09/16/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY