* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST EP972007 09/16/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 30 34 42 49 54 56 56 54 52 48
V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 30 34 42 49 54 56 56 54 52 48
V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 24 26 28 29 30 30 28 26
SHEAR (KTS) 9 9 12 12 14 13 15 19 19 24 28 25 27
SHEAR DIR 348 9 339 337 337 323 314 301 321 317 321 304 279
SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.3 26.1 24.7
POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 153 153 152 150 147 150 149 145 136 125 111
200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 6 5 4 2
700-500 MB RH 73 71 71 70 65 65 63 60 63 58 57 57 58
GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -14 -12 -12 -17 -21 -18 -32 -31 -20 -14 -8 0 -21
200 MB DIV 20 23 25 6 13 15 18 29 46 52 40 46 27
LAND (KM) 518 529 555 585 616 659 726 822 841 829 815 690 524
LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.7 11.9 12.2 12.4 13.1 14.0 15.0 16.0 17.1 18.4 20.1 22.5
LONG(DEG W) 98.8 100.0 101.2 102.5 103.7 106.3 108.9 111.2 113.3 115.0 116.2 116.7 116.8
STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 13 13 13 12 11 9 9 10 12
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 16. 23. 29. 33. 34. 35. 34.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -5.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 16. 23. 29. 33. 33. 31. 29. 25.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 10. 14. 22. 29. 34. 36. 36. 34. 32. 28.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP972007 INVEST 09/16/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
Scaled RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 36% is 2.7 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972007 INVEST 09/16/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED