* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INGRID AL082007 09/17/07 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 25 27 30 35 38 42 47 50 51
V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 25 27 30 35 38 42 47 50 51
V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 22 21 21 20 19 19 19 21 23 27 30
SHEAR (KTS) 24 28 30 22 28 28 18 20 13 13 8 20 20
SHEAR DIR 274 282 289 288 278 297 278 316 323 339 340 360 353
SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4
POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 149 148 150 151 151 151 152 155 156 155 155
ADJ. POT. INT. 138 139 137 136 137 137 135 133 134 138 138 134 132
200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 -54.7 -54.6 -54.8 -54.7 -54.8 -54.7 -54.9 -54.7 -54.9 -55.0
TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 12 11 12 10 11 10 10 10 10
700-500 MB RH 51 53 52 50 49 53 49 53 51 55 51 47 50
GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 6 5 6 4 4 4 4 3 2 2
850 MB ENV VOR -23 -20 -23 -25 -27 -24 -32 -21 -25 -13 -30 -28 -25
200 MB DIV -4 -7 2 19 0 10 11 -3 -18 -15 -32 -12 -38
LAND (KM) 717 639 561 506 454 391 368 367 368 388 481 555 611
LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.3 18.6 19.5 20.3 20.8 21.1 21.7 22.8 23.5 24.0
LONG(DEG W) 59.0 59.7 60.4 60.9 61.4 62.2 62.9 63.4 63.8 64.5 65.4 65.8 66.0
STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 6 5 3 2
HEAT CONTENT 76 78 77 79 81 81 87 75 73 73 61 58 58
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 725 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 10. 16. 21. 26. 29. 32. 34.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -4. -8. -10. -11. -10. -10. -11.
PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 7. 10. 14. 20. 24. 27.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. -1.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 10. 13. 17. 22. 25. 26.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL082007 INGRID 09/17/07 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.4 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 5.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5
Scaled RI index= 2.6 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 9% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082007 INGRID 09/17/07 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY