* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST EP972007 09/17/07 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 37 41 49 54 57 57 55 52 50 47
V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 37 41 49 54 57 57 55 52 50 47
V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 36 38 39 39 38 36 33 30
SHEAR (KTS) 8 12 12 15 16 20 22 23 25 30 20 19 18
SHEAR DIR 355 331 315 321 314 303 302 316 315 328 330 316 252
SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.2 27.4 26.5 25.5 24.0
POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 153 153 153 148 148 149 146 138 128 119 103
200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.4 -53.8 -53.4 -53.6 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 3 3
700-500 MB RH 73 73 71 65 63 67 61 67 60 58 56 54 51
GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -14 -16 -22 -29 -23 -29 -39 -38 -16 -19 -18 -24 -19
200 MB DIV 14 17 4 10 13 3 24 21 32 37 30 36 21
LAND (KM) 526 546 569 589 602 663 714 822 770 729 656 481 330
LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.9 12.2 12.6 12.9 13.6 14.7 15.7 16.9 18.3 19.8 21.7 24.2
LONG(DEG W) 99.8 101.0 102.2 103.5 104.7 107.2 109.6 111.8 113.7 115.0 115.7 115.6 115.5
STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 13 13 12 12 11 10 9 9 11 12
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 16. 22. 27. 30. 30. 30. 28.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -7.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 18. 24. 28. 29. 27. 25. 22. 19.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 12. 16. 24. 29. 32. 32. 30. 27. 25. 22.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP972007 INVEST 09/17/07 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0
Scaled RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972007 INVEST 09/17/07 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY