* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INGRID AL082007 09/17/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 24 26 28 33 37 43 50 55 57 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 24 26 28 33 37 43 50 55 57 V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 22 21 21 20 19 18 18 20 23 27 32 SHEAR (KTS) 24 29 25 28 35 24 24 12 14 8 7 9 10 SHEAR DIR 281 289 283 271 277 284 285 306 302 6 320 37 3 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 148 150 150 151 151 153 154 153 153 156 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 137 137 139 138 137 135 138 137 134 134 137 136 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.7 -54.7 -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 -54.8 -54.8 -55.0 -55.0 -55.1 -55.2 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 54 53 51 48 50 49 49 54 53 50 48 47 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -17 -22 -25 -30 -30 -29 -23 -28 -21 -25 -29 -31 200 MB DIV -7 2 6 -15 5 10 6 4 -8 -10 -23 -13 -18 LAND (KM) 642 577 513 445 380 281 243 226 258 301 333 388 431 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.5 17.6 17.9 18.2 18.9 19.4 20.0 20.7 21.2 21.5 22.0 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 59.7 60.3 60.9 61.5 62.1 63.1 63.7 64.5 65.2 65.7 66.0 66.5 67.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 4 3 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 78 76 78 85 88 81 79 79 92 88 83 73 67 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 747 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 10. 17. 22. 26. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -9. -11. -12. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 6. 9. 14. 21. 27. 32. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 8. 12. 18. 25. 30. 32. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL082007 INGRID 09/17/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 3.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 2.7 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082007 INGRID 09/17/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED