* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST EP972007 09/17/07 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 39 46 53 56 57 57 55 51 44
V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 39 46 53 56 57 57 55 51 44
V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 36 39 42 43 43 41 38 34
SHEAR (KTS) 11 13 15 13 13 15 19 19 21 24 22 33 42
SHEAR DIR 317 324 327 320 305 313 299 312 312 312 289 267 253
SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.5 28.5 28.2 27.4 26.3 25.1 23.4
POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 152 150 149 147 150 150 146 137 127 116 98
200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.7 -53.8
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 5 4 2 2
700-500 MB RH 75 74 69 66 67 66 65 64 62 61 58 58 50
GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 4 4 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -21 -27 -32 -23 -20 -35 -29 -20 -11 -19 3 10 5
200 MB DIV 26 4 2 0 13 3 11 51 64 50 71 32 52
LAND (KM) 589 609 632 644 679 754 849 871 862 838 694 460 218
LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.1 12.4 12.7 13.0 13.7 14.6 15.7 16.8 18.2 19.9 22.3 25.3
LONG(DEG W) 101.5 102.8 104.0 105.3 106.5 108.9 111.2 113.3 115.1 116.3 116.5 115.9 115.1
STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 11 9 9 10 14 15
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 16. 22. 27. 29. 30. 29. 28.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -5. -9.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 12. 18. 25. 30. 32. 31. 28. 24. 17.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. 0.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 10. 14. 21. 28. 31. 32. 32. 30. 26. 19.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP972007 INVEST 09/17/07 06 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
Scaled RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 12% is 0.9 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972007 INVEST 09/17/07 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY