* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP972007 09/17/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 43 51 55 57 57 55 51 45 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 43 51 55 57 57 55 51 45 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 31 34 37 39 40 39 36 32 SHEAR (KTS) 11 10 8 7 10 10 16 19 22 15 26 30 35 SHEAR DIR 326 332 316 307 298 302 303 301 310 306 292 269 262 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.2 27.1 26.0 24.9 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 150 152 152 155 154 152 146 134 123 112 105 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.9 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 -53.6 -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -53.6 -53.4 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 5 4 2 2 700-500 MB RH 73 68 66 67 68 64 64 59 59 59 55 52 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -33 -22 -18 -23 -29 -29 -28 -20 -9 -7 -8 -15 200 MB DIV 9 8 5 14 10 17 37 49 55 55 65 27 31 LAND (KM) 622 649 663 695 740 823 948 924 928 872 763 582 407 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.2 12.5 12.8 13.1 13.9 14.7 15.8 17.0 18.4 19.8 21.7 23.6 LONG(DEG W) 102.7 104.0 105.2 106.5 107.7 110.2 112.5 114.6 116.3 117.2 117.4 116.9 116.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 11 9 7 9 10 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 16. 23. 28. 30. 30. 30. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -3. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 10. 17. 26. 31. 33. 33. 29. 25. 19. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 11. 18. 26. 30. 32. 32. 30. 26. 20. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP972007 INVEST 09/17/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.9 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 14% is 1.0 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972007 INVEST 09/17/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED