* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST EP972007 09/17/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 41 51 60 65 66 64 59 54 48
V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 41 51 60 65 66 64 59 54 48
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 29 33 38 43 48 49 47 42 36
SHEAR (KTS) 9 7 6 7 10 9 11 11 14 23 28 31 39
SHEAR DIR 334 336 317 299 318 275 298 302 287 291 282 275 270
SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.0 28.9 28.6 27.8 26.8 25.5 24.3 23.8
POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 153 153 155 154 151 142 131 118 105 100
200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -54.2
TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 5 4 3 2 2
700-500 MB RH 68 67 67 68 67 64 62 62 63 63 61 58 50
GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -41 -29 -23 -27 -26 -35 -34 -27 -26 -13 -21 -23 2
200 MB DIV 10 8 18 14 24 11 31 54 50 52 27 28 9
LAND (KM) 637 663 707 756 800 929 967 989 998 947 848 700 530
LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.8 13.0 13.3 13.6 14.3 15.1 16.1 17.3 18.6 20.2 21.9 23.4
LONG(DEG W) 104.5 105.8 107.0 108.3 109.5 111.9 114.1 116.1 117.6 118.6 118.9 118.4 117.5
STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 13 12 12 11 10 9 8 9 9 8
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 17. 23. 28. 30. 30. 28. 27.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 2. -1. -5.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 21. 30. 36. 39. 37. 32. 27. 21.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 12. 16. 26. 35. 40. 41. 39. 34. 29. 23.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP972007 INVEST 09/17/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8
Scaled RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 37% is 2.9 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972007 INVEST 09/17/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY