* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP972007 09/18/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 38 42 54 61 64 62 59 53 47 43 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 38 42 54 61 64 62 59 53 47 43 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 29 32 36 40 43 44 43 40 35 SHEAR (KTS) 10 8 9 9 7 9 12 16 12 18 23 25 33 SHEAR DIR 329 332 311 318 302 274 282 309 319 297 281 269 267 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.4 27.7 26.7 25.6 24.9 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 151 152 154 154 153 148 140 129 118 110 107 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.0 -53.3 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.6 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 3 2 3 700-500 MB RH 66 67 68 67 65 66 60 64 61 67 61 54 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 7 5 5 4 2 3 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -24 -26 -27 -32 -43 -35 -33 -26 -17 -34 -48 -40 200 MB DIV 10 15 16 23 9 25 35 37 48 55 22 18 11 LAND (KM) 666 702 751 790 846 972 963 962 953 875 761 658 565 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.5 15.4 16.5 17.6 18.8 20.2 21.3 22.1 LONG(DEG W) 105.5 106.8 108.0 109.2 110.4 112.6 114.6 116.2 117.3 117.8 117.8 117.5 117.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 11 10 9 7 7 7 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 17. 23. 27. 29. 29. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 2. -1. -1. -3. -5. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 21. 28. 33. 33. 31. 26. 19. 15. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 13. 17. 29. 36. 40. 37. 34. 28. 23. 18. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP972007 INVEST 09/18/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Scaled RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 50% is 3.9 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972007 INVEST 09/18/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY