* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932007 09/18/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 33 41 50 60 67 72 76 79 80 V (KT) LAND 20 22 22 23 28 36 45 55 61 67 70 74 74 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 22 23 28 32 38 45 54 63 71 77 SHEAR (KTS) 26 25 28 19 12 17 3 9 1 9 7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 258 239 242 250 192 218 141 199 133 196 187 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 164 166 168 168 166 163 163 163 165 165 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 141 143 143 145 145 143 141 140 141 143 144 139 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -54.9 -54.5 -54.7 -54.9 -54.4 -54.5 -54.4 -54.7 -54.1 -54.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 9 8 9 8 9 6 8 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 59 59 53 54 45 43 42 39 40 38 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 4 6 7 7 9 10 12 13 13 13 13 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 17 33 26 39 62 63 54 31 37 33 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -16 9 32 14 3 8 11 -9 2 0 -8 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 99 29 -41 -33 4 103 212 327 292 202 144 114 23 LAT (DEG N) 25.8 25.9 26.0 26.1 26.2 26.4 26.6 26.8 27.0 27.3 27.8 28.6 29.5 LONG(DEG W) 79.2 79.9 80.6 81.3 81.9 83.3 84.6 86.0 87.5 89.0 90.7 92.5 94.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 83 87 9999 9999 35 44 48 47 118 60 43 44 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 706 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 4. 11. 18. 24. 30. 34. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 9. 9. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 13. 21. 31. 41. 46. 52. 57. 61. 63. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 13. 21. 30. 40. 47. 52. 56. 59. 60. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL932007 INVEST 09/18/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.5 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 9.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932007 INVEST 09/18/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY