* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP122007 09/18/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 35 41 45 46 43 39 34 33 36 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 35 41 45 46 43 39 34 30 30 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 32 33 33 30 27 23 21 SHEAR (KTS) 10 8 8 7 8 9 13 13 18 23 33 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 317 327 324 317 297 299 319 334 296 272 263 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.0 26.9 25.8 24.9 23.9 26.1 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 153 154 154 152 144 132 121 112 102 125 167 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.8 -54.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 7 6 3 3 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 67 67 64 63 57 58 59 67 56 50 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 6 7 6 5 4 3 2 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -40 -41 -43 -47 -59 -58 -52 -39 -48 -21 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 5 15 7 6 9 3 4 20 17 7 24 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 682 709 735 776 832 815 788 743 606 402 223 -6 -29 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.7 14.2 14.7 15.2 16.3 17.5 19.0 20.7 22.8 24.6 26.6 28.4 LONG(DEG W) 106.9 108.1 109.3 110.4 111.5 113.4 114.9 115.9 116.2 115.6 114.5 112.9 111.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 12 12 12 10 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 24. 25. 23. 23. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 8. 14. 18. 20. 18. 13. 8. 7. 9. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 7. 10. 16. 20. 21. 18. 14. 9. 8. 11. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP122007 INVEST 09/18/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Scaled RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122007 INVEST 09/18/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED