* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932007 09/18/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 39 44 52 62 70 76 78 80 81 79 V (KT) LAND 25 29 29 28 28 31 41 49 55 57 47 33 29 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 26 26 27 35 43 52 62 55 36 29 SHEAR (KTS) 23 26 17 15 20 8 5 9 7 3 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 233 237 240 177 189 168 130 270 151 181 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 30.0 30.0 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.7 28.4 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 159 162 162 164 164 168 168 165 163 165 164 142 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 139 140 141 141 145 143 141 139 140 140 122 102 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.5 -54.7 -54.9 -54.6 -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 8 9 8 8 6 7 5 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 60 56 58 55 44 45 43 43 41 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 7 9 10 10 12 14 14 12 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 31 25 36 56 50 72 43 32 0 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 34 9 11 29 6 36 -2 -12 2 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 117 57 -3 -65 -63 7 108 158 133 67 -36 -189 -335 LAT (DEG N) 26.0 26.1 26.2 26.5 26.7 27.1 27.7 28.3 29.1 29.8 30.6 31.5 32.8 LONG(DEG W) 79.0 79.6 80.2 80.8 81.4 82.6 83.9 85.1 86.6 88.1 89.7 91.7 93.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 7 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 81 85 79 9999 9999 20 45 29 32 31 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 22. 27. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 26. 37. 46. 52. 54. 57. 58. 57. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 14. 19. 27. 37. 45. 51. 53. 55. 56. 54. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL932007 INVEST 09/18/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.3 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.6 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Scaled RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 7% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932007 INVEST 09/18/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY