* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932007 09/19/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 39 44 52 63 70 76 78 80 78 78 V (KT) LAND 25 29 28 28 27 37 47 55 61 50 35 29 28 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 26 26 26 33 40 49 60 55 36 30 28 SHEAR (KTS) 24 13 13 19 14 2 5 9 6 5 10 9 7 SHEAR DIR 243 247 186 194 182 82 203 346 244 60 136 122 179 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.2 27.8 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 163 164 164 166 167 169 167 163 165 168 155 134 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 142 142 144 145 146 145 141 142 145 134 115 97 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.8 -55.0 -54.5 -54.5 -54.9 -54.7 -55.1 -54.8 -54.8 -54.0 -54.3 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 8 9 8 7 8 5 8 4 9 3 9 700-500 MB RH 63 61 61 60 56 50 44 43 41 39 38 38 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 11 11 11 12 13 13 14 13 12 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 27 25 47 67 64 68 62 33 15 3 -4 -10 32 200 MB DIV 35 3 21 51 24 21 9 -10 -14 9 1 21 77 LAND (KM) 100 35 -28 -48 -27 62 187 154 97 -8 -107 -225 -400 LAT (DEG N) 25.4 25.6 25.8 26.2 26.5 27.2 28.0 28.7 29.4 30.0 30.7 31.7 32.8 LONG(DEG W) 79.3 79.9 80.5 81.1 81.7 83.2 84.7 86.5 88.2 90.2 92.3 94.7 96.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 8 10 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 87 92 9999 9999 9999 34 36 31 35 32 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 31. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 11. 13. 14. 14. 15. 14. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 13. 17. 27. 38. 45. 52. 55. 57. 55. 56. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 14. 19. 27. 38. 45. 51. 54. 55. 53. 53. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL932007 INVEST 09/19/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.5 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.5 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Scaled RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 25% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932007 INVEST 09/19/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY