* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* IVO EP122007 09/19/07 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 41 46 52 56 64 68 66 60 56 50 46 42
V (KT) LAND 35 41 46 52 56 64 68 66 60 56 50 46 42
V (KT) LGE mod 35 39 43 47 50 56 59 59 56 52 47 43 39
SHEAR (KTS) 6 6 7 6 6 12 15 14 22 19 25 28 23
SHEAR DIR 335 309 296 294 275 309 336 319 329 314 279 305 277
SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.0 27.3 27.0 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.6
POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 154 153 152 148 142 134 131 128 128 127 127
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 -53.0 -53.4 -53.6 -54.3 -53.7
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 9 7 7 6 5 5 4 5
700-500 MB RH 64 64 63 60 56 60 59 63 66 64 61 59 61
GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -46 -51 -53 -58 -63 -65 -69 -73 -76 -79 -53 -37 -31
200 MB DIV 2 1 2 7 7 10 29 19 5 7 17 5 -8
LAND (KM) 702 741 798 846 831 805 757 682 616 538 470 395 320
LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.7 15.1 15.5 15.9 16.7 17.7 18.7 19.5 20.3 20.9 21.4 21.8
LONG(DEG W) 108.8 109.9 111.0 111.9 112.8 114.0 114.7 114.8 114.7 114.4 114.1 113.6 113.0
STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 10 10 8 7 5 4 4 4 4 3 3
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 15. 18. 20. 21. 21. 21. 20.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -3. -5.
PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 15. 21. 26. 25. 21. 18. 13. 8. 4.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 11. 17. 21. 29. 33. 31. 25. 21. 15. 11. 7.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP122007 IVO 09/19/07 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2
Scaled RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 44% is 3.4 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 4.7 Prob of RI= 66% is 5.1 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122007 IVO 09/19/07 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY