* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP982007 09/19/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 38 44 47 46 42 36 31 27 23 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 38 44 47 46 42 36 31 27 23 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 26 26 27 27 26 24 22 19 16 SHEAR (KTS) 14 9 9 5 7 1 9 17 22 30 34 40 43 SHEAR DIR 77 81 89 78 82 149 265 283 274 266 243 233 224 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.2 26.8 26.3 25.9 25.4 25.0 24.7 24.8 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 145 142 140 136 134 129 124 119 114 110 105 106 107 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -52.5 -52.9 -52.3 -52.9 -52.7 -53.2 -53.3 -53.8 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 72 70 71 66 66 64 60 55 53 49 45 43 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 25 25 27 40 48 67 65 67 61 71 78 84 200 MB DIV 57 65 59 53 54 43 44 69 43 35 31 28 37 LAND (KM) 1772 1802 1823 1835 1849 1875 1858 1828 1795 1765 1746 1766 1808 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.8 16.1 16.5 16.8 17.4 18.1 18.8 19.6 20.4 20.9 20.7 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 126.1 126.8 127.4 128.0 128.5 129.4 129.8 130.0 130.2 130.4 130.5 130.6 131.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 1 1 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 15. 15. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 2. -2. -6. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 15. 15. 13. 9. 4. 0. -4. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 10. 13. 19. 22. 21. 17. 11. 6. 2. -2. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP982007 INVEST 09/19/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Scaled RI index= 4.3 Prob of RI= 38% is 2.9 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 42% is 3.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982007 INVEST 09/19/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY