* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932007 09/19/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 34 37 47 57 64 68 70 70 70 68 V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 26 30 40 49 57 60 50 34 29 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 25 26 29 33 40 47 56 57 34 29 27 SHEAR (KTS) 20 17 20 17 7 6 10 5 2 7 8 17 5 SHEAR DIR 242 174 185 182 177 141 280 114 29 127 181 155 155 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.8 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.8 28.7 26.6 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 164 168 168 167 165 163 165 166 147 120 99 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 140 142 145 146 144 141 138 141 142 126 104 86 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -55.0 -54.5 -54.4 -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 6 8 6 8 4 7 4 8 5 700-500 MB RH 55 59 55 48 43 41 41 41 39 38 36 36 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 11 11 11 11 13 14 13 12 10 7 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 21 42 72 70 65 78 43 20 -17 -8 -46 -7 16 200 MB DIV -8 -6 37 17 4 22 -7 -11 -10 18 -5 65 57 LAND (KM) 15 -50 -72 -27 14 137 158 170 62 -14 -162 -323 -552 LAT (DEG N) 26.3 26.5 26.7 27.0 27.2 27.8 28.3 28.9 29.5 30.3 31.2 32.6 34.4 LONG(DEG W) 80.0 80.7 81.3 82.0 82.7 84.2 85.7 87.2 88.6 90.4 92.4 94.6 96.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 75 9999 9999 9999 22 42 27 44 23 42 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 22. 27. 31. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 14. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 13. 23. 32. 40. 43. 46. 46. 46. 46. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 6. 9. 12. 22. 32. 39. 43. 45. 45. 45. 43. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL932007 INVEST 09/19/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 9.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 3.0 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932007 INVEST 09/19/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED