* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* IVO EP122007 09/19/07 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 50 57 63 68 72 76 75 71 64 60 57 53 49
V (KT) LAND 50 57 63 68 72 76 75 71 64 60 57 53 49
V (KT) LGE mod 50 58 65 71 75 79 78 72 65 59 54 51 48
SHEAR (KTS) 6 6 7 7 10 16 15 21 18 16 15 15 16
SHEAR DIR 316 325 304 297 320 320 326 328 348 333 296 297 292
SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.3 27.8 27.4 27.2 27.0 27.1 27.0 26.7
POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 153 152 151 145 139 135 133 130 132 130 127
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 4
700-500 MB RH 66 67 65 60 60 61 62 64 65 60 59 57 52
GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -46 -43 -45 -44 -49 -55 -53 -57 -46 -49 -40 -41 -34
200 MB DIV 16 21 19 23 21 15 18 6 36 -3 -10 -32 -4
LAND (KM) 730 769 817 827 808 752 683 615 560 508 439 389 343
LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.9 15.3 15.8 16.2 17.2 18.1 18.9 19.5 20.0 20.4 20.9 21.5
LONG(DEG W) 109.6 110.5 111.4 112.2 113.0 113.9 114.1 114.1 114.0 113.8 113.3 113.1 113.0
STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 9 8 6 4 3 3 2 3 3 3
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 12. 12. 11. 10.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3.
PERSISTENCE 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8. 6. 4.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 18. 22. 26. 26. 22. 16. 11. 7. 3. -1.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 7. 13. 18. 22. 26. 25. 21. 14. 10. 7. 3. -1.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP122007 IVO 09/19/07 06 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0
Scaled RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 36% is 2.8 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122007 IVO 09/19/07 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY