* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP982007 09/19/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 33 36 42 46 48 45 44 43 39 37 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 33 36 42 46 48 45 44 43 39 37 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 26 27 27 26 24 22 SHEAR (KTS) 9 10 9 12 10 3 2 5 13 18 27 32 34 SHEAR DIR 86 97 103 108 124 112 273 298 230 244 227 228 223 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.3 25.9 25.5 25.3 25.3 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 136 134 132 129 127 123 119 115 112 112 110 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 68 71 67 66 66 66 62 62 57 53 52 50 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 10 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR 30 24 17 26 33 42 55 57 58 45 58 64 76 200 MB DIV 57 41 31 34 42 41 46 57 79 51 48 49 43 LAND (KM) 1790 1803 1819 1841 1865 1890 1892 1840 1767 1702 1641 1618 1566 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.2 16.5 16.7 16.9 17.2 17.5 18.0 18.7 19.3 19.7 19.8 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 126.7 127.3 127.8 128.3 128.8 129.4 129.7 129.5 129.2 128.9 128.5 128.3 128.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 3 3 3 2 1 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. 1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 2. 2. 5. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 17. 20. 18. 17. 16. 11. 9. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 8. 12. 17. 21. 23. 20. 19. 18. 14. 12. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP982007 INVEST 09/19/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Scaled RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982007 INVEST 09/19/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY