* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932007 09/19/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 39 49 57 63 65 65 62 61 64 V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 26 30 39 32 29 27 27 27 27 28 V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 25 25 26 33 29 28 27 27 27 27 28 SHEAR (KTS) 15 23 18 10 6 11 8 3 6 7 8 11 29 SHEAR DIR 182 171 188 169 166 227 324 108 32 181 153 212 208 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.2 28.4 26.7 25.0 23.0 21.2 POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 159 161 163 163 161 154 141 121 105 92 84 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 137 138 139 140 140 136 129 118 102 91 81 75 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -54.7 -54.4 -54.7 -54.1 -54.3 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 6 4 7 4 7 2 6 1 8 0 700-500 MB RH 57 52 49 45 44 39 40 39 40 42 45 50 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 12 12 12 13 14 15 14 13 10 7 5 13 850 MB ENV VOR 31 65 61 54 72 65 36 -12 -30 -46 -73 -19 48 200 MB DIV 10 40 26 5 0 3 -19 -14 -15 -11 38 65 92 LAND (KM) 26 -23 -72 -56 4 31 -19 -110 -197 -325 -514 -757 -999 LAT (DEG N) 27.2 27.6 28.0 28.5 28.9 29.7 30.6 31.6 32.3 33.3 34.6 36.6 39.1 LONG(DEG W) 79.9 80.6 81.3 82.1 82.8 84.4 86.1 87.5 88.9 90.6 92.4 93.9 93.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 7 8 9 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 62 9999 9999 9999 37 22 25 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 489 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 11. 17. 21. 25. 26. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 13. 14. 14. 16. 15. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -2. -4. -5. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 14. 24. 32. 39. 40. 41. 38. 37. 42. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 14. 24. 32. 38. 40. 40. 37. 36. 39. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL932007 INVEST 09/19/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.8 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932007 INVEST 09/19/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY