* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * IVO EP122007 09/19/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 66 70 72 74 72 67 62 56 52 50 48 V (KT) LAND 55 61 66 70 72 74 72 67 62 56 52 50 48 V (KT) LGE mod 55 61 66 70 73 75 72 67 60 54 50 47 46 SHEAR (KTS) 9 10 10 11 13 16 22 22 23 17 14 4 5 SHEAR DIR 310 305 300 303 308 329 320 331 326 324 342 5 56 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.0 27.5 27.1 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 152 149 148 142 137 132 131 130 129 128 126 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.0 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 6 6 5 6 4 700-500 MB RH 65 62 60 57 59 59 63 63 63 60 64 61 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 5 6 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -48 -46 -43 -47 -52 -57 -61 -59 -52 -43 -33 -39 -45 200 MB DIV 25 15 14 14 4 12 12 36 25 18 -21 -11 -9 LAND (KM) 772 801 797 763 735 697 623 538 449 374 319 274 256 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.6 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.8 18.8 19.7 20.5 21.0 21.2 21.5 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 110.7 111.4 112.1 112.7 113.2 113.9 114.1 113.9 113.5 113.0 112.5 112.2 112.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 8. 8. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 16. 17. 15. 11. 7. 2. -3. -5. -7. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 11. 15. 17. 19. 17. 12. 7. 1. -3. -5. -7. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP122007 IVO 09/19/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Scaled RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122007 IVO 09/19/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED