* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* THIRTEEN EP132007 09/19/07 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 31 34 34 32 29 27 29 28 24
V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 31 34 34 32 29 27 29 28 24
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 22 21 19 17 16 DIS
SHEAR (KTS) 9 8 11 13 6 7 13 14 21 26 32 32 43
SHEAR DIR 105 96 111 142 166 226 284 243 255 236 226 213 217
SST (C) 27.0 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.2 26.1 26.0 25.8 25.7 25.5 25.6 25.5 25.3
POT. INT. (KT) 133 129 126 125 122 120 119 117 116 114 115 115 113
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -53.8 -53.8 -54.2 -53.8 -54.2
TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4
700-500 MB RH 64 64 63 64 64 61 58 58 53 50 47 42 44
GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 6 6 6 9 9 8
850 MB ENV VOR 51 38 29 37 43 42 52 53 52 43 75 60 58
200 MB DIV 36 19 19 33 31 36 58 67 48 44 64 55 39
LAND (KM) 1742 1756 1773 1790 1809 1828 1831 1811 1783 1738 1717 1668 1597
LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.4 17.7 17.9 18.1 18.3 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.4 19.2 19.3 19.6
LONG(DEG W) 127.3 127.9 128.4 128.8 129.2 129.6 129.8 129.8 129.7 129.4 129.0 128.5 127.9
STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 3
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 443 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 2. -1. -4. -8.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 3. 3. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 8. 7. 4. 2. 3. 2. -3.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 9. 7. 4. 2. 4. 3. -1.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP132007 THIRTEEN 09/19/07 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.6 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5
Scaled RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 12% is 0.9 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 12% is 0.9 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132007 THIRTEEN 09/19/07 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED