* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP982007 09/19/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 31 35 34 31 29 27 26 26 22 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 31 35 34 31 29 27 26 26 22 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 22 20 19 17 16 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 8 7 11 11 6 9 13 12 18 22 30 32 33 SHEAR DIR 128 106 131 149 162 224 287 248 232 214 233 236 241 SST (C) 27.0 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.2 26.1 26.0 25.8 25.7 25.5 25.6 25.5 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 133 129 126 125 122 120 119 117 116 114 115 115 113 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -53.5 -53.2 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 66 66 65 66 65 61 58 53 50 47 46 48 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 37 26 32 39 44 53 62 55 62 57 67 90 71 200 MB DIV 39 29 23 33 39 36 56 68 64 40 46 36 -1 LAND (KM) 1742 1756 1773 1790 1809 1828 1831 1811 1783 1738 1717 1668 1597 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.4 17.7 17.9 18.1 18.3 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.4 19.2 19.3 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 127.3 127.9 128.4 128.8 129.2 129.6 129.8 129.8 129.7 129.4 129.0 128.5 127.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 403 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 3. 0. -3. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 9. 7. 5. 2. 0. 0. -4. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 9. 6. 4. 2. 1. 1. -3. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP982007 INVEST 09/19/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.6 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982007 INVEST 09/19/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED