* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932007 09/19/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 49 56 59 62 61 58 56 55 V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 29 V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 24 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 29 SHEAR (KTS) 22 17 6 5 8 14 8 10 7 6 16 8 37 SHEAR DIR 178 182 179 184 211 279 60 352 41 78 165 152 189 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.5 29.3 28.8 27.7 26.1 24.1 22.1 20.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 158 161 160 156 147 132 115 99 88 82 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 133 133 135 138 136 130 123 111 98 86 78 74 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.5 -54.7 -54.7 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.3 -54.3 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 4 3 6 4 6 3 7 2 7 4 4 700-500 MB RH 52 49 48 46 44 38 36 34 38 40 41 51 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 12 14 14 15 15 13 11 7 6 3 7 850 MB ENV VOR 52 57 52 80 80 53 16 -30 -16 -62 -23 7 35 200 MB DIV 43 27 2 0 14 -12 -28 -12 -9 -6 35 64 86 LAND (KM) 48 -8 -69 -47 -11 -52 -105 -152 -244 -392 -594 -851 -999 LAT (DEG N) 28.4 28.8 29.2 29.6 29.9 30.6 31.4 32.0 32.6 33.5 35.1 37.3 40.1 LONG(DEG W) 80.1 81.0 81.8 82.7 83.6 85.4 87.1 88.5 90.2 92.1 94.2 95.5 94.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 8 7 7 9 10 12 12 15 HEAT CONTENT 57 52 9999 9999 34 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 8 CX,CY: -1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 362 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 10. 16. 20. 23. 25. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 6. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 15. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -7. -9. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 24. 32. 34. 37. 36. 34. 33. 33. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 14. 24. 31. 34. 37. 36. 33. 31. 30. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL932007 INVEST 09/19/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.5 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932007 INVEST 09/19/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY