* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * IVO EP122007 09/19/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 69 72 74 75 73 68 61 56 51 48 46 V (KT) LAND 60 65 69 72 74 75 73 68 61 56 51 48 46 V (KT) LGE mod 60 64 68 71 73 74 73 68 63 59 54 51 49 SHEAR (KTS) 9 7 8 10 14 12 16 16 19 18 18 14 8 SHEAR DIR 315 321 325 303 312 321 315 317 328 316 332 316 14 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.0 27.5 27.3 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.9 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 151 149 147 142 137 135 133 131 130 130 131 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 10 9 9 8 7 7 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 59 56 58 60 56 58 61 62 60 58 62 58 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 6 5 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -43 -46 -53 -63 -47 -66 -62 -59 -25 -42 -31 -51 200 MB DIV 27 33 21 3 16 28 14 30 12 4 -45 -14 -38 LAND (KM) 841 843 820 793 770 709 624 500 378 287 225 163 113 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.5 16.9 17.8 18.7 19.7 20.6 21.1 21.2 21.5 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 111.6 112.2 112.8 113.3 113.7 114.1 114.0 113.4 112.7 112.0 111.2 110.5 109.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 6 5 4 3 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 14. 15. 13. 8. 2. -3. -8. -12. -14. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 9. 12. 14. 15. 13. 8. 1. -4. -9. -12. -14. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP122007 IVO 09/19/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Scaled RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122007 IVO 09/19/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY