* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * THIRTEEN EP132007 09/19/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 39 45 45 44 39 38 37 32 24 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 39 45 45 44 39 38 37 32 24 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 33 34 34 34 34 33 30 27 24 20 SHEAR (KTS) 8 12 15 7 5 4 8 20 22 31 35 47 45 SHEAR DIR 101 113 130 142 151 222 285 245 241 225 220 212 217 SST (C) 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.4 26.0 25.7 25.4 25.1 24.8 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 129 128 128 128 128 127 124 121 117 114 111 109 105 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -54.0 -53.7 -54.1 -53.8 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 63 62 64 65 65 61 59 60 53 50 44 46 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 8 7 9 7 7 5 7 9 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 39 28 35 40 46 58 52 51 37 53 59 66 28 200 MB DIV 19 19 34 30 38 41 56 74 45 61 65 50 22 LAND (KM) 1795 1819 1844 1875 1908 1942 1874 1781 1696 1612 1537 1445 1328 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.4 17.5 18.0 18.5 19.0 19.5 20.0 20.5 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 128.4 128.8 129.1 129.5 129.8 130.3 129.9 129.2 128.6 128.0 127.5 126.8 125.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 3 3 3 3 1 3 4 4 3 4 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 1. -3. -8. -12. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. 1. 3. 3. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 14. 13. 9. 8. 6. 0. -8. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 9. 15. 15. 14. 9. 8. 7. 2. -6. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP132007 THIRTEEN 09/19/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Scaled RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 19% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132007 THIRTEEN 09/19/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY