* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING *
* INVEST AL932007 09/20/07 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 37 45 50 54 56 56 57 58 57
V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 33 36 44 43 34 29 27 27 27 29
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 30 32 37 44 32 28 27 27 27 29
SHEAR (KTS) 23 12 9 5 8 5 3 15 17 19 9 15 39
SHEAR DIR 189 150 138 176 220 358 170 75 159 119 175 170 199
SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.6 28.6 26.5 23.7 21.7 20.1
POT. INT. (KT) 155 158 163 165 165 163 165 162 146 119 97 88 82
ADJ. POT. INT. 132 137 141 142 142 139 140 138 126 104 86 79 75
200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.7 -54.9 -54.7 -54.5 -54.8 -53.9 -54.3 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -54.5 -55.0
TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 4 6 6 3 7 3 8 3 9 2 3
700-500 MB RH 50 47 46 43 39 38 35 37 36 35 51 62 61
GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 13 14 14 14 11 9 7 6 4 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 66 51 80 83 65 26 -13 0 -10 -9 24 28 26
200 MB DIV 29 -5 -8 3 -9 -28 -13 -13 -13 15 60 51 58
LAND (KM) -23 -76 -7 47 34 53 0 -34 -176 -329 -606 -902 -999
LAT (DEG N) 28.5 28.8 29.1 29.3 29.5 30.0 30.4 30.7 31.3 32.6 34.8 37.7 40.8
LONG(DEG W) 80.9 81.9 82.8 83.8 84.7 86.6 88.3 90.2 92.5 95.0 96.6 96.0 93.3
STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 9 9 8 8 9 11 12 13 16 18
HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 35 31 20 30 25 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 22. 26. 27. 28. 28.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 6. 7. 10. 13. 14. 13. 13. 13. 14. 11.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 20. 25. 29. 31. 31. 32. 33. 32.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 12. 20. 25. 29. 31. 31. 32. 33. 32.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL932007 INVEST 09/20/07 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.8 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.7 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3
Scaled RI index= 2.8 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932007 INVEST 09/20/07 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY