* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * IVO EP122007 09/20/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 71 72 73 71 67 62 57 52 46 41 41 V (KT) LAND 65 68 71 72 73 71 67 62 57 52 46 41 41 V (KT) LGE mod 65 69 72 74 74 73 69 64 60 56 53 49 47 SHEAR (KTS) 9 10 10 13 12 16 16 17 10 19 20 22 11 SHEAR DIR 318 333 303 314 324 306 323 328 332 295 293 305 334 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.7 27.4 27.2 26.8 26.7 26.8 27.2 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 148 148 144 139 136 134 129 127 129 134 149 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 6 7 6 8 6 11 700-500 MB RH 58 57 62 56 57 63 63 67 63 69 64 64 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 8 7 6 5 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -43 -51 -57 -57 -51 -60 -55 -35 -21 -49 -48 -28 200 MB DIV 32 22 15 26 24 33 28 11 24 -15 9 -32 -6 LAND (KM) 819 801 787 748 711 615 489 364 243 168 121 39 97 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.1 16.4 16.9 17.4 18.5 19.5 20.5 21.6 22.1 22.1 22.6 23.6 LONG(DEG W) 112.1 112.6 113.0 113.3 113.5 113.6 113.0 112.4 111.9 111.4 110.8 109.8 108.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 6 6 5 6 6 5 3 4 6 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -4. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 10. 9. 5. -1. -6. -11. -17. -22. -23. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 7. 8. 6. 2. -3. -8. -13. -19. -24. -24. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP122007 IVO 09/20/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Scaled RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 19% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122007 IVO 09/20/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY