* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* THIRTEEN EP132007 09/20/07 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 33 34 35 31 28 24 19 DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 33 34 35 31 28 24 19 DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 29 29 28 28 28 27 25 21 17 DIS
SHEAR (KTS) 8 7 8 5 8 4 10 21 30 39 48 52 50
SHEAR DIR 141 148 163 175 186 259 219 234 222 225 214 226 222
SST (C) 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.3 25.8 25.4 25.0 24.4 24.1 23.8
POT. INT. (KT) 127 126 125 126 127 127 124 120 115 111 104 101 97
200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 -53.6 -53.7 -54.2 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4
TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
700-500 MB RH 63 66 66 66 64 55 51 44 41 35 32 26 28
GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 33 42 41 51 49 45 63 54 57 83 70 40 49
200 MB DIV 12 19 20 31 29 45 65 65 41 22 24 21 -3
LAND (KM) 1822 1859 1896 1923 1951 1983 1909 1794 1646 1534 1409 1340 1346
LAT (DEG N) 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.7 17.6 17.5 18.1 18.8 19.5 20.3 21.2 21.9 22.6
LONG(DEG W) 129.1 129.6 130.0 130.3 130.5 130.8 130.4 129.6 128.4 127.7 126.9 126.6 127.1
STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 3 3 2 1 5 6 5 6 5 4 4
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 6. 3. -2. -7. -14. -19.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 3. 5.
THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 2. -1. -6. -12. -18. -23.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 1. -2. -6. -11. -17. -21.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP132007 THIRTEEN 09/20/07 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8
Scaled RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132007 THIRTEEN 09/20/07 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY