* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING *
* INVEST AL932007 09/20/07 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 38 44 49 54 53 56 57 57 55
V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 35 39 46 51 35 29 28 27 28 29
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 30 31 34 39 45 34 29 27 27 28 29
SHEAR (KTS) 13 11 7 5 8 10 7 9 13 17 5 47 59
SHEAR DIR 176 124 134 223 323 56 343 108 184 167 275 220 215
SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.4 27.7 25.1 22.6 20.9 19.9
POT. INT. (KT) 161 163 165 165 165 163 165 159 134 107 91 84 82
ADJ. POT. INT. 138 141 142 141 141 139 140 137 117 94 80 76 75
200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.9 -54.7 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.0 -53.9 -53.6 -53.7 -54.4 -54.2 -54.3
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 7 7 5 7 4 7 3 8 5 6 0
700-500 MB RH 52 49 47 39 39 40 35 37 42 48 54 57 56
GFS VTEX (KT) 12 14 14 14 15 14 11 9 6 7 4 5 7
850 MB ENV VOR 56 75 80 66 42 15 -30 -11 -42 19 31 34 16
200 MB DIV -7 -1 0 -5 -7 -32 -16 5 -4 35 57 76 37
LAND (KM) -81 0 58 89 47 61 11 -73 -234 -456 -733 -999 -999
LAT (DEG N) 28.3 28.6 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.9 30.3 30.9 31.9 33.6 35.8 38.6 41.2
LONG(DEG W) 81.7 82.6 83.5 84.4 85.2 87.0 88.6 90.6 93.1 95.8 97.3 96.8 93.1
STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 11 13 13 13 16 19
HEAT CONTENT 9999 31 39 31 21 35 21 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 22. 25. 26. 27. 27.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 6. 7. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 15. 13. 8.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -16.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -3. -6. -6. -8. -7. -5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 19. 24. 29. 28. 31. 32. 32. 30.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 13. 19. 24. 29. 28. 31. 32. 32. 30.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL932007 INVEST 09/20/07 06 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.7 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.4 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3
Scaled RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932007 INVEST 09/20/07 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED