* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * IVO EP122007 09/20/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 70 71 72 70 68 63 59 55 50 48 48 V (KT) LAND 65 68 70 71 72 70 68 63 59 55 50 42 46 V (KT) LGE mod 65 67 68 69 69 66 63 59 56 53 52 43 48 SHEAR (KTS) 9 11 11 8 10 9 13 9 7 10 10 4 10 SHEAR DIR 310 301 325 333 305 313 300 328 292 266 242 192 205 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.5 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.7 27.0 27.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 145 143 141 137 134 131 129 128 131 138 148 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 56 57 55 54 55 57 62 60 62 61 59 55 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -53 -54 -47 -38 -43 -38 -29 -9 -23 -19 -31 -5 200 MB DIV 32 12 24 27 48 13 27 -7 5 -4 -7 -16 -26 LAND (KM) 785 737 691 647 604 500 367 274 203 128 39 -16 70 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.8 17.3 17.8 18.3 19.3 20.3 21.0 21.6 22.1 22.6 23.4 24.3 LONG(DEG W) 112.4 112.7 112.9 113.0 113.1 112.9 112.2 111.7 111.4 110.9 110.2 109.7 109.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 4. 1. -3. -6. -10. -15. -17. -17. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. 3. -2. -6. -10. -15. -17. -17. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP122007 IVO 09/20/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Scaled RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122007 IVO 09/20/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY