* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * THIRTEEN EP132007 09/20/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 32 34 34 31 31 30 27 19 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 32 34 34 31 31 30 27 19 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 29 29 29 30 30 30 27 23 19 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 5 4 3 4 4 3 12 17 34 39 48 50 45 SHEAR DIR 160 169 151 176 259 288 244 243 231 233 226 224 228 SST (C) 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.9 27.1 27.2 26.9 26.4 25.9 25.4 24.9 24.4 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 127 129 131 132 130 125 120 115 110 104 100 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.8 -53.5 -54.2 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 64 66 63 61 57 57 52 49 46 40 39 37 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 3 4 5 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 41 43 46 35 41 41 48 34 54 45 40 -1 -1 200 MB DIV 12 19 18 40 23 32 72 26 49 46 32 10 0 LAND (KM) 1862 1898 1935 1965 1995 1968 1890 1782 1675 1562 1447 1353 1277 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.7 17.6 17.4 17.1 16.9 17.3 17.9 18.6 19.4 20.1 21.0 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 129.5 129.9 130.3 130.5 130.6 130.1 129.5 128.7 128.0 127.3 126.5 126.1 125.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 3 2 3 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 9. 5. 0. -5. -11. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -5. -5. -4. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 3. 3. -1. -5. -13. -18. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. -7. -5. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. 0. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 1. 1. 0. -3. -11. -16. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP132007 THIRTEEN 09/20/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 4.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Scaled RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 20% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 28% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132007 THIRTEEN 09/20/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY