* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932007 09/20/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 38 45 50 54 56 56 55 53 48 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 38 45 41 32 28 27 28 29 30 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 36 30 28 27 28 29 30 SHEAR (KTS) 5 6 9 8 5 5 10 11 11 15 19 42 57 SHEAR DIR 102 114 235 302 34 133 37 183 157 204 184 195 213 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.7 28.7 26.0 23.3 21.1 20.9 17.2 POT. INT. (KT) 169 168 166 167 165 163 164 147 115 95 86 87 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 143 143 144 142 139 140 127 100 85 78 81 74 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.4 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -54.3 -54.1 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 7 6 8 3 7 1 8 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 47 41 42 45 40 43 44 44 48 60 63 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 15 16 15 13 11 8 8 6 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 72 65 50 33 27 3 -6 -26 -67 -25 27 34 128 200 MB DIV -11 12 13 1 -9 -17 2 -8 26 43 58 71 39 LAND (KM) 105 133 162 201 155 86 -8 -169 -398 -722 -999 -999 -784 LAT (DEG N) 26.5 26.9 27.2 27.8 28.3 29.7 30.7 31.9 33.6 36.3 39.6 42.9 45.7 LONG(DEG W) 83.4 83.9 84.3 84.9 85.4 86.5 87.9 89.8 92.0 93.4 92.5 88.0 80.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 5 6 7 8 8 9 11 13 15 19 26 30 HEAT CONTENT 45 45 43 38 27 28 29 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 21. 24. 25. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 13. 15. 16. 16. 17. 15. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -11. -13. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 19. 25. 30. 32. 33. 31. 30. 26. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 13. 20. 25. 29. 31. 31. 30. 28. 23. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL932007 INVEST 09/20/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.9 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 9% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 27% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932007 INVEST 09/20/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY