* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * IVO EP122007 09/20/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 66 67 67 65 60 57 51 47 42 42 43 V (KT) LAND 65 66 66 67 67 65 60 57 51 47 37 40 35 V (KT) LGE mod 65 65 65 65 65 62 59 57 54 51 42 44 38 SHEAR (KTS) 9 8 6 4 9 5 8 10 17 13 14 14 15 SHEAR DIR 317 339 5 290 290 320 305 301 292 273 273 237 236 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.7 26.9 27.4 28.9 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 143 141 138 136 133 129 128 130 136 152 168 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 6 8 5 10 4 700-500 MB RH 55 54 52 56 55 59 60 61 60 57 56 51 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 10 10 9 6 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -53 -56 -45 -30 -35 -40 -39 -26 -12 -18 -13 -9 16 200 MB DIV 14 20 29 43 20 17 -5 22 -19 -20 -16 -12 -10 LAND (KM) 734 694 657 609 563 456 340 234 130 40 -29 87 -19 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.3 17.8 18.3 18.8 19.8 20.8 21.6 22.3 23.1 23.9 24.9 26.1 LONG(DEG W) 112.7 113.0 113.2 113.2 113.2 112.9 112.4 111.8 111.1 110.6 110.3 109.8 109.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 6 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -5. -7. -7. -9. -10. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -3. -7. -12. -16. -21. -22. -21. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -5. -8. -14. -18. -23. -23. -22. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP122007 IVO 09/20/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Scaled RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122007 IVO 09/20/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED