* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * THIRTEEN EP132007 09/20/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 25 25 29 30 26 27 29 28 26 26 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 25 25 29 30 26 27 29 28 26 26 V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 22 21 21 21 21 22 22 22 21 18 16 SHEAR (KTS) 3 1 1 2 5 7 10 17 26 30 43 42 42 SHEAR DIR 226 245 155 246 317 213 240 225 248 231 237 240 251 SST (C) 26.4 26.5 26.7 27.0 27.2 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.3 26.0 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 125 126 127 131 132 133 131 129 127 125 123 120 116 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -54.0 -53.8 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 61 60 55 55 53 52 47 47 49 47 47 45 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 47 37 39 27 41 38 45 52 46 29 11 -20 200 MB DIV 13 15 30 37 47 40 56 37 43 57 25 -1 2 LAND (KM) 1882 1925 1968 1992 2017 1975 1920 1874 1834 1804 1758 1730 1706 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 17.8 17.6 17.3 16.9 16.8 17.0 17.2 17.3 17.5 17.9 18.4 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 130.0 130.4 130.7 130.7 130.7 130.1 129.6 129.2 128.8 128.6 128.4 128.5 128.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 3 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 9. 7. 4. -1. -5. -9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -8. -8. -7. -8. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. 1. 3. 2. 3. 3. 0. -2. -3. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 7. 5. 4. 5. 5. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -6. -3. 0. -2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. 1. 3. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. 0. 0. 4. 5. 1. 2. 4. 3. 1. 1. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP132007 THIRTEEN 09/20/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 2.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 Scaled RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.3 Prob of RI= 43% is 3.3 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132007 THIRTEEN 09/20/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED