* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL932007 09/20/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 38 44 50 54 56 55 55 52 46
V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 38 44 35 29 28 27 29 30 30
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 32 28 27 27 29 30 30
SHEAR (KTS) 5 4 9 6 3 10 6 3 11 10 30 62 77
SHEAR DIR 121 252 325 15 75 344 195 334 176 242 198 205 221
SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 27.5 24.5 22.1 19.6 18.6 16.0
POT. INT. (KT) 167 165 164 164 164 163 161 131 103 89 82 80 76
ADJ. POT. INT. 145 139 139 140 140 138 138 114 91 80 75 75 73
200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.0 -53.7 -53.8 -53.3 -53.7 -54.2 -54.4 -54.0 -53.8
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 7 6 8 5 7 3 7 3 1 0 0
700-500 MB RH 41 41 42 47 48 48 49 47 49 57 65 53 41
GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 16 16 16 14 12 9 8 4 LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 63 46 22 25 20 -6 -2 -60 -56 -13 19 28 36
200 MB DIV 18 4 -7 -2 6 -7 20 -1 32 77 101 41 20
LAND (KM) 175 203 234 172 121 52 -56 -257 -564 -901 -999 -983 -608
LAT (DEG N) 27.1 27.4 27.6 28.2 28.7 30.0 31.2 32.7 35.1 38.2 41.6 44.3 46.2
LONG(DEG W) 84.4 84.8 85.2 85.6 85.9 86.7 88.1 90.4 92.4 92.8 90.5 84.9 77.0
STM SPEED (KT) 8 4 5 6 7 8 11 13 15 16 22 27 29
HEAT CONTENT 43 43 40 30 26 32 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 16. 20. 23. 23. 24. 24.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. 16. 11.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -12. -15. -17.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -6. -10. -10. -10. -10.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 18. 25. 29. 32. 31. 32. 29. 24.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 13. 19. 25. 29. 31. 30. 30. 27. 21.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL932007 INVEST 09/20/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.7 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
Scaled RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 26% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932007 INVEST 09/20/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY