* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * IVO EP122007 09/20/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 72 73 72 69 64 58 56 51 45 43 42 V (KT) LAND 70 71 72 73 72 69 64 58 56 51 40 40 39 V (KT) LGE mod 70 71 72 71 70 66 63 59 55 52 41 42 41 SHEAR (KTS) 9 9 6 7 7 5 7 12 13 15 13 12 16 SHEAR DIR 334 2 336 305 324 289 316 277 280 253 246 213 195 SST (C) 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.5 26.5 26.7 27.1 28.2 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 146 142 140 138 136 133 130 126 126 128 132 144 155 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 8 7 7 7 6 6 7 6 7 5 8 700-500 MB RH 50 51 54 55 57 59 59 58 59 57 54 49 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 11 11 11 9 8 6 8 7 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR -47 -35 -21 -30 -36 -30 -23 -7 -16 -2 -31 -4 -10 200 MB DIV 17 28 42 38 28 25 -7 0 -22 -16 -17 -11 1 LAND (KM) 676 632 591 550 511 393 281 183 103 19 -10 40 77 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.0 18.5 19.0 19.4 20.5 21.4 22.3 23.0 23.8 24.5 25.3 26.0 LONG(DEG W) 113.0 113.1 113.2 113.2 113.2 112.8 112.2 111.7 111.3 111.0 110.9 110.6 110.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -6. -3. -4. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 4. 1. -3. -9. -11. -16. -23. -25. -26. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -6. -12. -14. -19. -25. -27. -28. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP122007 IVO 09/20/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Scaled RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122007 IVO 09/20/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY