* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * THIRTEEN EP132007 09/20/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 25 27 28 25 24 24 21 19 17 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 25 27 28 25 24 24 21 19 17 V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 22 21 21 21 21 21 20 19 16 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 4 5 1 1 2 12 14 24 34 43 45 42 45 SHEAR DIR 334 13 35 185 231 203 218 229 229 227 230 244 260 SST (C) 26.5 26.7 26.8 26.9 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.3 26.0 25.6 25.3 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 125 127 128 129 132 130 128 126 124 120 116 113 109 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 60 56 54 52 51 48 48 48 46 46 41 43 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 7 6 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 39 39 39 49 50 46 48 44 40 12 -9 -47 200 MB DIV 7 25 30 43 34 46 38 47 41 38 16 9 -10 LAND (KM) 1921 1948 1975 1968 1962 1890 1819 1734 1649 1580 1511 1482 1432 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 17.7 17.5 17.3 17.1 17.2 17.4 17.7 17.9 18.4 19.0 19.5 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 130.3 130.5 130.7 130.5 130.2 129.4 128.7 127.9 127.0 126.6 126.3 126.4 126.4 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 5.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 14. 15. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 3. -2. -7. -11. -15. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -7. -7. -6. -7. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 0. 0. -3. -7. -10. -12. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 9. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -6. -3. 0. -2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. 2. 3. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 0. -1. -1. -4. -6. -8. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP132007 THIRTEEN 09/20/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.3 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 Scaled RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.3 Prob of RI= 43% is 3.3 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132007 THIRTEEN 09/20/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY