* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932007 09/21/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 35 40 46 50 52 52 55 49 41 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 35 40 33 29 27 27 27 29 30 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 31 28 27 27 27 29 30 SHEAR (KTS) 7 8 6 2 6 9 9 16 14 10 46 60 67 SHEAR DIR 242 336 22 93 264 38 181 145 188 199 212 217 215 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.4 27.6 25.2 22.8 21.3 20.3 20.2 POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 165 163 163 165 159 132 108 91 86 86 86 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 145 143 140 139 141 138 115 94 80 78 80 81 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.2 -53.8 -54.1 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 -54.0 -54.1 -54.6 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 8 8 3 7 2 8 3 4 0 0 700-500 MB RH 47 44 44 42 41 45 44 46 52 56 58 53 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 15 15 14 11 9 8 6 3 10 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 60 23 25 30 14 -7 -17 -45 1 25 21 -30 -28 200 MB DIV 8 -21 -7 8 10 -20 15 17 25 43 46 17 28 LAND (KM) 117 182 144 119 128 33 -67 -245 -447 -709 -966 -999 -820 LAT (DEG N) 27.4 27.9 28.4 28.9 29.3 30.1 30.9 32.0 33.6 35.7 38.3 40.7 43.4 LONG(DEG W) 83.9 84.7 85.4 86.2 86.9 88.5 90.5 93.1 95.5 96.9 95.9 90.9 83.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 8 8 8 8 9 11 12 12 12 17 27 31 HEAT CONTENT 46 38 27 27 38 23 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 20. 23. 24. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 15. 15. 16. 14. 11. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 22. 26. 28. 28. 32. 26. 19. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 10. 15. 21. 25. 27. 27. 30. 24. 16. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL932007 INVEST 09/21/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932007 INVEST 09/21/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY