* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* IVO EP122007 09/21/07 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 70 70 70 68 66 64 59 56 52 46 42 38 37
V (KT) LAND 70 70 70 68 66 64 59 56 52 46 35 31 34
V (KT) LGE mod 70 71 71 70 69 66 63 60 57 53 39 33 36
SHEAR (KTS) 9 6 5 5 2 3 4 10 10 16 14 20 23
SHEAR DIR 355 337 297 296 61 251 296 282 265 265 240 234 227
SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.2 26.9 26.6 26.3 26.2 26.4 26.9 28.0 29.4
POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 136 135 133 130 127 124 123 125 130 142 157
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -54.4
TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 7 7 8 6 6 5 7 4 7 2 6
700-500 MB RH 50 52 54 55 56 60 57 58 55 52 45 47 44
GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 10 8 8 6 6 5 4 4 3 3
850 MB ENV VOR -25 -21 -22 -21 -20 -18 -20 -4 -14 -12 -14 7 5
200 MB DIV 32 46 39 20 27 -5 27 -21 -9 -30 -21 -22 37
LAND (KM) 606 565 526 477 431 351 253 169 77 7 -50 -4 68
LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.9 19.3 19.8 20.3 21.1 22.0 22.8 23.7 24.5 25.2 26.3 27.5
LONG(DEG W) 113.3 113.3 113.3 113.2 113.1 112.8 112.3 112.0 111.7 111.6 111.5 111.5 111.5
STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 5 5 6
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):339/ 9 CX,CY: -2/ 8
T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 1. -2.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -7. -12. -19. -24. -28. -29.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -11. -14. -18. -24. -28. -32. -33.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP122007 IVO 09/21/07 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7
Scaled RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122007 IVO 09/21/07 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY