* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL932007 09/21/07 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 40 43 49 52 54 55 55 51 44 33
V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 40 43 38 31 28 27 28 29 30 30
V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 38 41 38 31 28 27 28 29 30 30
SHEAR (KTS) 9 7 4 5 12 3 3 21 12 33 72 89 95
SHEAR DIR 318 19 53 215 315 57 221 171 216 201 202 207 223
SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 28.5 26.0 23.2 21.1 19.3 18.8 15.4
POT. INT. (KT) 166 165 163 162 163 166 145 115 95 85 81 82 76
ADJ. POT. INT. 143 141 138 137 138 142 126 101 84 77 75 76 73
200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.7 -54.5 -54.1 -54.3 -54.0 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -53.4
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 8 5 7 3 7 4 6 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 41 43 43 39 41 43 45 47 55 60 63 48 39
GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 14 12 12 10 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 33 30 34 16 -6 -17 -52 -23 7 50 16 -6 -39
200 MB DIV -18 0 -11 -3 3 15 -2 27 48 103 65 34 0
LAND (KM) 183 122 95 108 59 -22 -169 -382 -668 -999 -999 -999 -711
LAT (DEG N) 28.1 28.6 29.1 29.5 29.9 30.6 31.6 33.2 35.6 38.8 42.0 44.8 46.9
LONG(DEG W) 84.9 85.5 86.1 86.7 87.2 88.9 91.2 93.9 95.7 95.6 92.6 86.6 78.0
STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 7 9 12 14 14 17 22 29 31
HEAT CONTENT 34 25 26 31 37 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.7 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 17. 19. 18. 18. 18.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 14. 15. 14. 12. 8. 1.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. -18.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -9.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 13. 19. 23. 25. 25. 26. 22. 16. 6.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 10. 13. 19. 22. 24. 25. 25. 21. 14. 3.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL932007 INVEST 09/21/07 06 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.3 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.7 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3
Scaled RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932007 INVEST 09/21/07 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED