* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * IVO EP122007 09/21/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 70 69 68 67 63 60 55 50 46 40 36 34 V (KT) LAND 70 70 69 68 67 63 60 55 50 46 36 32 29 V (KT) LGE mod 70 69 68 67 65 62 60 57 54 50 39 33 30 SHEAR (KTS) 7 6 5 1 4 3 7 11 12 12 22 23 32 SHEAR DIR 326 320 300 48 213 263 266 285 265 236 232 230 220 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.6 26.3 26.2 26.3 27.0 27.6 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 135 134 132 130 127 124 122 124 131 137 143 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 7 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 4 700-500 MB RH 53 55 55 53 56 54 52 52 48 46 40 46 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 6 6 5 5 5 4 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -29 -31 -32 -29 -29 -13 -15 -18 -29 -8 0 15 200 MB DIV 47 39 14 26 32 0 6 -28 -11 -29 -11 15 30 LAND (KM) 591 538 486 439 393 327 250 177 108 31 -29 -24 0 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.2 19.7 20.1 20.5 21.2 21.9 22.7 23.4 24.2 24.9 25.7 26.5 LONG(DEG W) 113.5 113.4 113.2 113.0 112.8 112.6 112.2 112.0 111.8 111.6 111.2 111.3 111.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 3. 1. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -8. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -7. -12. -17. -21. -28. -32. -34. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -10. -15. -20. -24. -30. -34. -36. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP122007 IVO 09/21/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Scaled RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122007 IVO 09/21/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY