* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932007 09/21/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 39 42 48 51 52 53 52 46 39 33 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 39 42 40 31 28 27 27 28 29 30 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 38 41 42 32 28 27 27 28 29 30 SHEAR (KTS) 7 3 3 7 8 11 19 23 12 39 59 62 44 SHEAR DIR 8 53 236 345 41 182 148 189 174 215 219 233 239 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.2 26.7 23.3 21.6 20.7 19.8 19.6 POT. INT. (KT) 165 163 163 163 165 166 155 122 95 85 82 80 80 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 139 139 139 142 143 134 107 84 76 74 73 73 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.4 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -53.8 -53.6 -52.9 -53.4 -53.7 -54.2 -54.8 -56.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 5 4 7 4 8 3 5 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 45 44 42 42 43 45 43 50 59 58 47 31 29 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 13 11 11 8 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 27 22 0 -2 -6 -29 0 27 51 0 -61 -51 200 MB DIV -8 -11 -1 -8 -11 15 16 34 29 57 2 5 5 LAND (KM) 111 88 107 79 55 -22 -101 -320 -645 -899 -999 -999 -999 LAT (DEG N) 28.7 29.1 29.5 29.7 29.9 30.2 30.7 32.5 35.2 37.5 39.4 41.4 43.4 LONG(DEG W) 85.3 86.0 86.7 87.6 88.5 90.6 93.1 95.1 96.5 96.9 95.3 92.5 88.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 9 10 11 14 13 11 13 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 26 24 32 38 23 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 18. 19. 19. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 13. 12. 13. 11. 8. 5. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -13. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 9. 12. 18. 21. 23. 24. 23. 17. 11. 6. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 9. 12. 18. 21. 22. 23. 22. 16. 9. 3. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL932007 INVEST 09/21/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.9 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.0 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 7% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932007 INVEST 09/21/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY