* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * IVO EP122007 09/21/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 59 57 55 51 48 44 40 37 33 31 30 V (KT) LAND 65 62 59 57 55 51 48 44 40 33 30 31 30 V (KT) LGE mod 65 63 60 58 56 53 50 48 45 36 32 34 33 SHEAR (KTS) 8 8 3 5 3 5 10 14 15 19 21 25 31 SHEAR DIR 289 275 271 217 229 215 283 259 272 235 236 225 238 SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.6 26.2 26.0 26.0 26.5 27.7 28.5 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 132 131 130 127 123 121 121 126 138 146 153 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 6 3 6 3 7 1 700-500 MB RH 54 55 55 55 58 57 59 54 51 45 46 46 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 9 8 9 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -31 -30 -35 -38 -28 -12 -18 -11 -12 6 10 18 200 MB DIV 31 14 15 26 -7 28 -32 -11 -20 -11 -14 28 9 LAND (KM) 547 496 446 406 368 299 199 115 40 -40 -18 24 48 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.8 20.3 20.7 21.1 21.8 22.7 23.5 24.3 25.1 25.8 26.5 27.3 LONG(DEG W) 113.6 113.5 113.3 113.2 113.0 112.7 112.3 112.0 111.9 111.7 111.3 111.3 111.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 751 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 0. -4. -8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -6. -9. -11. -15. -20. -24. -30. -32. -33. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -6. -8. -10. -14. -17. -21. -25. -28. -32. -34. -35. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP122007 IVO 09/21/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Scaled RI index= 2.7 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.8 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122007 IVO 09/21/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED