* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * TEN AL102007 09/21/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 38 42 44 46 47 44 38 32 30 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 32 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 4 1 9 13 14 6 22 14 28 44 56 51 N/A SHEAR DIR 15 17 353 35 75 116 173 231 225 223 223 242 N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 28.6 26.9 25.4 24.0 23.0 22.5 22.1 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 163 163 166 146 123 107 96 90 88 87 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 138 136 137 138 142 127 106 91 82 77 77 76 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -53.8 -53.5 -53.6 -54.1 -54.4 -54.8 -55.3 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 5 4 7 4 8 6 7 1 1 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 45 43 43 46 46 46 56 57 58 48 40 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 11 10 9 9 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 10 -19 -17 -27 -75 -42 0 23 3 -27 -76 N/A 200 MB DIV -9 -24 -22 -15 0 -2 27 38 56 42 13 17 N/A LAND (KM) 65 52 14 -5 -24 -178 -299 -446 -575 -692 -769 -876 N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.7 30.0 30.3 30.5 30.6 31.4 32.4 33.3 34.3 35.4 36.4 37.6 N/A LONG(DEG W) 86.1 86.8 87.4 88.3 89.2 91.7 94.4 96.4 97.1 97.3 96.4 94.7 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 7 8 10 12 11 7 6 5 8 9 N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 27 29 23 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 9. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 12. 13. 12. 9. 6. 2. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 18. 16. 10. 4. 2. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 14. 16. 17. 14. 8. 2. 0. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL102007 TEN 09/21/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.5 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 8% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102007 TEN 09/21/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY