* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * IVO EP122007 09/21/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 56 53 50 47 43 38 33 30 29 27 28 29 V (KT) LAND 60 56 53 50 47 43 38 33 27 27 29 30 31 V (KT) LGE mod 60 56 53 51 49 46 43 40 37 30 32 32 32 SHEAR (KTS) 7 3 7 7 7 10 11 17 15 13 17 23 26 SHEAR DIR 284 286 234 233 241 228 264 268 275 245 236 214 227 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.3 25.9 25.8 26.2 26.9 28.2 29.1 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 131 130 128 124 120 118 123 130 144 153 158 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 5 6 5 5 5 6 4 6 4 6 700-500 MB RH 54 54 57 60 57 55 54 51 45 42 42 43 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -31 -33 -39 -33 -16 -16 -7 -20 10 4 22 -2 200 MB DIV 15 29 27 -6 1 24 -46 -22 -24 -21 -6 -2 0 LAND (KM) 499 450 404 365 329 244 152 68 -4 -50 12 61 51 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.3 20.8 21.2 21.6 22.4 23.3 24.1 24.7 25.4 26.3 27.1 27.7 LONG(DEG W) 113.5 113.4 113.2 113.1 112.9 112.6 112.3 112.1 111.8 111.6 111.3 111.3 111.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -3. -7. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -15. -21. -25. -28. -30. -30. -29. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -4. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -7. -10. -13. -17. -22. -27. -30. -31. -33. -32. -31. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP122007 IVO 09/21/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Scaled RI index= 2.5 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.7 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122007 IVO 09/21/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY