* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* TEN AL102007 09/22/07 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 31 33 36 37 34 30 29 27
V (KT) LAND 25 23 24 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 28 28
V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 24 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS
SHEAR (KTS) 5 14 14 12 8 17 20 19 34 46 50 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 301 7 47 72 112 116 198 210 212 216 219 N/A N/A
SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.0 27.3 25.9 24.6 23.6 23.0 22.6 N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 161 163 163 162 152 128 112 100 93 91 89 N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 135 137 139 139 131 109 94 84 80 78 78 N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -54.0 -53.7 -53.1 -53.5 -54.0 -54.6 -54.4 N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 8 5 3 6 7 2 8 3 6 0 0 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 44 44 45 45 40 42 46 59 63 64 53 N/A N/A
GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 11 9 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 17 -22 -13 -12 -40 -73 -30 10 19 -13 -39 N/A N/A
200 MB DIV -16 -15 -21 -6 -12 1 32 51 58 33 42 N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 8 -14 -24 -72 -107 -267 -382 -504 -616 -722 -825 N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 30.4 30.6 30.7 31.0 31.3 32.2 33.1 34.1 35.1 36.2 37.4 N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 86.7 87.5 88.3 89.4 90.5 93.1 94.9 95.6 95.8 94.8 93.1 N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 10 11 10 7 5 6 8 9 N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 26 29 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 8. 12. 15. 17. 18. 19. 21.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 12. 11. 7. 4. 3. 0.
PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 12. 10. 6. 6. 5.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 9. 5. 4. 2.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL102007 TEN 09/22/07 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.2 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6
Scaled RI index= 3.0 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102007 TEN 09/22/07 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY