* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * IVO EP122007 09/22/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 51 47 43 39 33 26 22 21 21 23 25 29 V (KT) LAND 55 51 47 43 39 33 26 22 21 21 25 27 32 V (KT) LGE mod 55 51 48 46 43 39 35 32 30 27 29 30 31 SHEAR (KTS) 2 11 12 10 12 13 15 12 13 13 9 12 14 SHEAR DIR 219 227 227 246 224 260 280 292 260 258 203 234 208 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.2 26.4 26.5 27.1 27.9 28.8 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 130 129 127 125 122 124 125 131 140 149 156 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 6 6 5 6 4 8 5 9 4 10 700-500 MB RH 57 58 60 58 55 52 49 48 42 43 40 44 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 5 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -27 -32 -33 -36 -13 -18 -2 2 14 15 18 -2 200 MB DIV 27 19 2 3 21 -25 -18 -32 -32 -9 15 0 17 LAND (KM) 446 397 351 320 291 207 132 64 18 -10 22 60 85 LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.7 21.1 21.5 21.8 22.5 23.1 23.6 24.0 24.5 25.1 25.6 26.1 LONG(DEG W) 113.2 113.0 112.8 112.7 112.6 112.2 111.8 111.4 111.2 110.9 110.7 110.4 110.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 2 3 3 3 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -8. -10. -15. -21. -26. -28. -29. -28. -26. -23. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -6. -5. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -8. -12. -16. -22. -29. -33. -34. -34. -32. -30. -26. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP122007 IVO 09/22/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.9 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 2.2 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.4 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122007 IVO 09/22/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY