* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * IVO EP122007 09/22/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 44 42 40 35 30 27 26 29 30 32 35 V (KT) LAND 50 47 44 42 40 35 30 25 28 31 33 34 38 V (KT) LGE mod 50 46 43 41 39 35 33 28 30 31 32 33 35 SHEAR (KTS) 8 10 7 8 11 11 14 12 12 7 17 11 19 SHEAR DIR 234 220 245 221 243 264 275 286 266 204 181 189 206 SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.6 27.3 28.0 28.4 28.2 28.7 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 132 130 129 128 126 125 127 134 140 143 141 148 160 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 6 7 6 8 7 9 7 9 6 700-500 MB RH 59 62 59 56 54 50 48 44 41 40 38 37 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 2 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -27 -33 -38 -26 -19 -7 -10 18 4 24 -11 16 200 MB DIV 23 3 10 27 11 -26 -25 -25 -20 -11 5 8 6 LAND (KM) 394 346 299 257 215 133 58 -31 15 45 30 67 40 LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.1 21.5 21.9 22.2 22.8 23.3 23.9 24.3 24.5 24.4 24.6 25.3 LONG(DEG W) 113.0 112.8 112.5 112.3 112.0 111.5 111.0 110.4 110.1 109.9 110.0 109.7 109.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 2 0 0 3 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -9. -13. -17. -20. -21. -20. -20. -18. -15. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -6. -8. -10. -15. -20. -23. -24. -21. -20. -18. -15. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP122007 IVO 09/22/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Scaled RI index= 2.2 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.7 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122007 IVO 09/22/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY