* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL942007 09/22/07 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 46 53 59 59 62 62 64 64
V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 28 27 37 44 50 50 53 53 55 55
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 25 25 31 35 40 46 51 57 61 63
SHEAR (KTS) 16 8 14 14 4 10 8 14 10 12 15 11 14
SHEAR DIR 289 265 228 233 209 189 200 211 250 285 333 1 55
SST (C) 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.7 28.6 29.0 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.1
POT. INT. (KT) 159 156 151 147 146 152 161 162 159 157 155 152 151
ADJ. POT. INT. 151 149 142 138 136 139 143 141 136 134 133 132 132
200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.2 -52.8 -53.2 -53.3 -52.7 -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -53.4
TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 10 9 8 10 8 10 8 11 7 11 7
700-500 MB RH 72 71 66 65 61 57 51 49 48 50 50 48 49
GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 9 8 7 7 7 7 4 5 3 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 6 14 25 20 12 17 11 36 19 31 7 4 -5
200 MB DIV 48 59 65 40 44 42 20 3 -3 -4 -13 10 -4
LAND (KM) 226 118 12 -91 -33 185 357 420 333 256 215 188 132
LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.8 19.6 20.3 21.0 22.6 23.7 24.7 25.0 25.0 24.7 24.2 23.4
LONG(DEG W) 85.5 86.4 87.3 88.2 89.1 90.8 92.2 93.2 94.0 94.8 95.4 95.9 96.5
STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 11 11 11 10 7 5 4 3 3 4 5
HEAT CONTENT 129 119 84 9999 9999 48 67 42 25 24 33 43 64
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 22. 27. 30. 33. 35.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. 7.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 18. 25. 32. 35. 40. 40. 41. 42.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 10. 14. 21. 28. 34. 34. 37. 37. 39. 39.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL942007 INVEST 09/22/07 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.3 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4
Scaled RI index= 4.3 Prob of RI= 27% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.6 Prob of RI= 40% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942007 INVEST 09/22/07 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY