* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * IVO EP122007 09/22/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 43 39 36 30 24 23 24 29 30 32 35 V (KT) LAND 50 47 43 39 36 30 24 22 27 32 33 35 38 V (KT) LGE mod 50 48 46 44 42 38 36 30 33 34 36 38 40 SHEAR (KTS) 11 9 7 11 8 11 13 6 8 9 15 17 19 SHEAR DIR 205 216 211 229 256 274 293 271 282 151 178 179 215 SST (C) 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.5 27.0 27.5 28.0 28.4 29.0 29.5 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 130 129 127 126 125 126 130 135 140 144 151 156 160 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 5 7 5 9 6 10 6 10 4 700-500 MB RH 61 58 51 51 51 48 45 41 40 39 38 38 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 7 6 5 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -31 -40 -24 -21 -14 -9 0 3 14 9 -4 2 200 MB DIV 10 15 23 16 -20 -15 -29 -27 -12 -5 -5 32 2 LAND (KM) 351 299 250 215 179 104 22 -28 17 47 91 69 22 LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.5 21.9 22.2 22.5 22.9 23.4 23.8 24.0 24.2 24.6 25.1 25.7 LONG(DEG W) 112.8 112.5 112.2 112.0 111.8 111.2 110.6 110.2 109.8 109.6 109.4 109.4 109.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 3 4 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 5 CX,CY: 2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -6. -8. -12. -17. -18. -19. -16. -17. -15. -12. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -7. -5. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -7. -11. -14. -20. -26. -27. -26. -21. -20. -18. -15. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP122007 IVO 09/22/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.4 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 1.9 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.3 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122007 IVO 09/22/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED